[Drama 2020] The King: Eternal Monarch, 더 킹: 영원의 군주

[CarolynH]

5 hours ago, briseis said:

Much has been written about the Four Tiger Sword but it seems likely that it will go down to Yeong, the sword Lee Gon himself chose, being the trumph card because no weapon is more powerful than people. And that makes the moment when Lee Gon charges Yeong with killing Lee Rim so freakingly poignant and symbolic. The king is literally charging his best and most loyal knight and subject with an quest to save him and the kingdom(s).

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

THE SHEER INTENSITY! Lee Gon’s steely determination and Yeong’s sad realization and acceptance are absolutely compelling and the chemistry these two actors have with each other and the camera is unreal.

 

The battle between Gon and his uncle, two men with a claim to the throne, is not only between themselves but between their people, as well. Who is the more powerful? The one who has their love and freely given loyalty or the one who rules with fear?

 

I really love how you described the relationship between Lee Gon and Yeong.  I thought that scene was really powerful and poignant at the same time.  Ugh, now I feel depressed thinking one of the two will die.

*****

Separately, I saw your post @syntyche yesterday(?) that it was the anniversary of this thread.  Thank you, my friend, for doing such a good job bringing us news of the drama.

PS Anyone else missing Maximus?

Edited May 9, 2020 by Jillia
Please do not quote pics! Thanks!

[Keikokoko]

1 hour ago, INeedAFan said:

Return of investment is important due to the increasing of production cost

That's precisely the reason why the rating in Korea matter less in the case when the right of drama is bought for international distribution.  There is commercial return from selling the content rights to Netflix for streaming. Depending on how the deal is structured, production company will have better financial security with a drama not solely count on Korean market. Risk diversification with wider market. Production crews will have better job security working on this type of production than not. 

 

Just to add, the rating in Korea is important to lead stars. When drama is popular and hot, the lead stars or breakout actors are loved by local Korean, they often gain product endorsement opportunities, which can bring in sustainable income for these actors. However, if we are talking about ROI for production company or security of production crew, rating in Korea carries less weight. 

[asul_03]

1 hour ago, syntyche said:

Here's a larger version of the photos of doppelgangers introduced in episode 7

cr: ochloe weibo

 

  Hide contents

 

 

And the rest of the doppelgangers so far (there's a link to these photos in the first page for easy reference) 

 

  Hide contents

 

 

thank you so much for this, chingu. now it will be easier for us to familiarize ourselves with the many doppelgangers of TKEM.

 

as expected, this thread is moving at an amazing speed.

 

i gotta love the scenes of WDH in this episode. he is so good and so funny at the same time. him playing the JES character was superb.

 

and as for the first date of LG and JTE, .

 

over all, i love that JTE trusts LG now and has actually asked him about the case she's working on, specifically with regard to K Stadium. i appreciate it that she now believes in a parallel universe no matter how weird the idea is.

 

i also love the fact the LG actually brought JY to ROK for him to see for himself that LG is telling the truth and that JTE is luna are 2 different persons...and for him to also meet his doppelganger.

[reynamorisson]

On 5/2/2020 at 6:02 AM, reynamorisson said:

Spoiler

 

My two cents of the rating and all:

 

Let's all agree that this drama is not an easy topic to digest. Let's not compare it to CLOY, especially WOTM, Itaewon Class -> because the complexity of the story setting and the stretch of reality they bring are totally of different variables to compare (putting editing, directing and everything else aside). Now let's see what other dramas we could compare this to: Arthdal Chronicles, Goblin, Hotel Del Luna--but even for these two, the back stories are simple. One is about a punished soul that has to live for 900 years and look for his bride to finally kill him. Hote Del Luna is another story about a woman that has to live so many years before she could go. For foreign shows, the king would follow the theme of Interstellar, Inception, etc. The closest to this drama to me is Arthdal Chronicles which did well but also did not sky rocket rating. Even these movies I mentioned are not easy to make sense for many audience and did sufficient in terms of market success but not extravagantly reaping audience. Interesting how TKEM is similar to these shows right?

 

So what am I saying here? Assuming that our stakeholders in this production are professionals (which I believe they all are), the writers, the actors, the PDs and everyone - that must mean that they have been the first people to know the nature of this show, the risks and their audience first hand. They are professionals in the industry and are top rated players, who are equipped to predict some levels of outcomes. Before we assume that they don't know this, we should give some thoughts that maybe this was expected even by them (notice how all the casts in the press conference said that the story picked up as the show continues). They know that risk, once again.

 

We are the ones who have a different set of expectations and what success means. Our expectation is that everyone (20% which are 2 million korean audience would tap and follow) but I know that my mom won't be interested in watching this type of drama. She did not even finish episode 2 of Goblin. My dad even more so. So what this eventually means is that maybe we should expect that it will fall around 9-12% rating (and btw this means 1.2-1.5 million watchers in South Korea only). Who is to say that this won't increase? But then again even if it does not increase, can we see that this is a good number already for this highly complex story? Like 1.2 million people on average are following parallel universe theory when maybe 50% of them do believe that the world is flat? I think that's pretty amazing ~

 

The production company, artists and writer are aware of the risks and potential that this won't reach the whole population in South Korea. However, even with that argument, we know that this number does not capture Netflix followers and please read through my thoughts below why going to Netflix and different branding variables are important to define success.

 

What does success mean then? Why would they take this risks? Wouldn't it be easier to do a different project with easier delivery and less risks? And if stakeholders are aware that the drama potentially won't reach all types of audience, how will they finance it? Will they lose money?

 

No, they took this project as is and went forward (and made profit out of it). They must have done different strategies to make it happen:

 

1) The story targetted a more serious type of audience: focused, loyal and creative minds who are more mature in terms of variety of entertainment. We know that a TV episode showing once may not fulfill that. Hence a streaming provider fits with the need of audience to be focused while watching. This calls for a platform where you can watch it anytime, anywhere.

 

2) They predicted the minimum audience base in Korea and kept going with that breakeven point, and expanded the project targetting million others across the world that can follow this type of story through a global paid platform

 

3) They found artists who are with the same mission and vision: delivering complicated stories well, targeting a different type of audience, and increasing their brand recognition across the world.

 

The above point is proven through several strategies that they have successfully done:

 

1) They sold the shows to both SBS and Netflix as well as other streaming services at full cost and have gained 30% profit even before episode 4! 30% profit from 30 billion project is a yummy number of money. Also Studio Dragon stock has been increasing before and while project is airing. Project financing accomplished and streaming companies are happy that many new users signed up (customer acquisition) and actually, the show itself is not losing.

 

2) Branding and endorsement continue to receive average of 1.2-2 million watchers in Korea alone with the names that Kim Eun Sook, Lee Minho, Kim Go Eun carry with the show as is. It already gives them profits and revenues. Think what this means for those brands for the international audience -> tourism, business expansion, etc.

 

3) The top rated actors and actresses wanted to expand their acting portofolio and brand recognition. And they got that in this project. The artists too are placed to carry the show especially in the beginning where they try to attract that specific niche audience, lay down the stage setting of the story and expose the skills of the artists. Lee Min Ho, Kim Go Eun and WDH gained several hundred thousands instagram followers in 3 weeks alone (check that for success). And guys, this is only 30% of the whole show! We see how well Wo Doh Hwan has done the two roles -- we have yet to see Luna where I am sure Kim Go Eun will slay with her acting skills. More is in store. More exciting stuff is coming.

 

I'd like to close this lengthy media and film industry essay (lol) by acknowledging that the story and characters could be written more neatly. The CGI and editing could be better. And the acting can always be encouraged to take different interpretations. But instead of seeing this show as a failure, I'd like to invite you all to see another point of view: isn't it exciting that 1.2 million people in Korea alone, and several other millions in the world are following this mindfogging storyline? And in fact, is also doing well beyond the repeatedly sourced number? And in fact, is not losing financially? And it's only episode 5? And there is more? And there are geeks like us that like how the theories come up? And math?

 

Stay focused on the things that matter. LMH and KGE careers are doing well and even better. I cannot wait for the next episodes! 

 

 

 

Sorry, I feel like I should requote this statement again and again every Friday

 

My hypotheses has been proven true yet again. The show will have 8-12% average rating, and it is first of all not a flop. In fact, as I previously said may have been expected due to the storyline (1 million constant SK public channel people) by default will not attract everyone. And trust me, as the plot thickens it will continue to stabilize or even rise. 

 

Even more so, the show is successful - so far being watched by close to 10-20 million watchers via Netflix where the show has been the top 10 every weekend in 10 countries or so.

 

Now what are variables of reach beyond just South Korea and the proxy to see success?

1. Netflix top 10 (potential of 10-20 million on average in Asia). TKEM is constantly sitting in #1 every weekend.

2. WAVE Video on Demand (currently #1 for 3 weeks in a row in Korea)

3. Instagram following of main casts: following has increased in hundred thousands every week for LMH, KGE and WDW. 

4. YouTube videos of the casts via The Swoon surpassed 1 million watch in just 3 days. Well on its way to rise above CLOY couple clips. All clips of the couple have been watched by at least 300k people.

 

And contrary to the production team being sad, this show has made 30% profit. That means the production team has been paid in full for what they are working on now. There is more money to reap (again because 9%-12% is not a flop) and the show does target video streaming audience.

 

please do yourself a favor and understand the placement strategy to put the show on Netflix and some nature of the show itself which will only attract specific audience 

 

Otherwise you will be sad for no purpose and only add fuel to the narrative that the show is failing as the haters want to see.

[Jemrie]

 the way he grabs her tightly towards him  and their height difference 

 

******

this scene kinda made sense.........i got goosebumps

Spoiler

 

[kboramint]

The Prime Minister has a doppleganger. Will we get a chance to officially meet her? How soon? 

[INeedAFan]

20 minutes ago, Keikokoko said:

That's precisely the reason why the rating in Korea matter less in the case when the right of drama is bought for international distribution.  There is commercial return from selling the content rights to Netflix for streaming. Depending on how the deal is structured, production company will have better financial security with a drama not solely count on Korean market. Risk diversification with wider market. Production crews will have better job security working on this type of production than not. 

I understand your point. However, I don’t think Netflix pays that much because it only counts for distributional rights. You are welcome to correct me if you have a number (I remember Dramafever could pay up to 1M USD for a drama which was one of many reasons for its closure). If you read the annual report of CJEm, it’s stated that a drama should create a domestic buzz and achieve certain ratings in order to be profitable. Unfortunately, this drama has less domestic buzz compared to other dramas such as HP or WOTM. I do think they might be able to recoup their investment when they sell the broadcasting rights. However, with Netflix on the table, I am not sure how this scenario plays out.

 

50 minutes ago, Heretorant said:

But of course, if we knew or the writer and director knew what Korean viewers wanted, the ratings problem would be solved easily. Unfortunately, it’s just hard to know what they like. 

Isn’t it the main reason for filming a drama while it’s still airing? Some adjustments are usually made to suite the taste of general public. We shall see how this drama evolves. 

[leeminhosny]

34 minutes ago, reynamorisson said:

 

Sorry, I feel like I should requote this statement again and again every Friday

 

My hypotheses has been proven true yet again. The show will have 8-12% average rating, and it is first of all not a flop. In fact, as I previously said may have been expected due to the storyline (1 million constant SK public channel people) by default will not attract everyone. And trust me, as the plot thickens it will continue to stabilize or even rise. 

 

Even more so, the show is successful - so far being watched by close to 10-20 million watchers via Netflix where the show has been the top 10 every weekend in 10 countries or so.

 

Now what are variables of reach beyond just South Korea and the proxy to see success?

1. Netflix top 10 (potential of 10-20 million on average in Asia). TKEM is constantly sitting in #1 every weekend.

2. WAVE Video on Demand (currently #1 for 3 weeks in a row in Korea)

3. Instagram following of main casts: following has increased in hundred thousands every week for LMH, KGE and WDW. 

4. YouTube videos of the casts via The Swoon surpassed 1 million watch in just 3 days. Well on its way to rise above CLOY couple clips. All clips of the couple have been watched by at least 300k people.

 

And contrary to the production team being sad, this show has made 30% profit. That means the production team has been paid in full for what they are working on now. There is more money to reap (again because 9%-12% is not a flop) and the show does target video streaming audience.

 

please do yourself a favor and understand the placement strategy to put the show on Netflix and some nature of the show itself which will only attract specific audience 

 

Otherwise you will be sad for no purpose and only add fuel to the narrative that the show is failing as the haters want to see.

Yes please we read this in every Friday

[Keikokoko]

25 minutes ago, INeedAFan said:

don’t think Netflix pays that much because it only counts for distributional rights. You are welcome to correct me if you have a number

@INeedAFan  I am not insider and therefore has no number. But you can find this article https://asiatimes.com/2020/01/netflix-buys-big-into-k-dramas/ to know why it's big deal to sign contract with Netflix. Business deal can be structure in multiple layers with outright buy out, profit sharing and residues. We don't know how their deal and can't speculate. But reading from this article, if the tangible and intangible profit aren't there, why would Studio Dragon even bother to setup US office?

 

Add: The deal with Netflix boosted its stock share value. That alone is a winner. According to Studio Dragon, 53 recommendations to buy its stock have appeared; no analyst recommends selling the share. 

[leeminhosny]

2 minutes ago, Keikokoko said:

@INeedAFan  I am not insider and therefore has no number. But you can find this article https://asiatimes.com/2020/01/netflix-buys-big-into-k-dramas/ to know why it's big deal to sign contract with Netflix. Business deal can be structure in multiple layers with outright buy out, profit sharing and residues. We don't know how their deal and can't speculate. But reading from this article, if the tangible and intangible profit aren't there, why would Studio Dragon even bother to setup US office?

So I need add this

 

 

 

[Heretorant]

26 minutes ago, INeedAFan said:

I understand your point. However, I don’t think Netflix pays that much because it only counts for distributional rights. You are welcome to correct me if you have a number (I remember Dramafever could pay up to 1M USD for a drama which was one of many reasons for its closure). If you read the annual report of CJEm, it’s stated that a drama should create a domestic buzz and achieve certain ratings in order to be profitable. Unfortunately, this drama has less domestic buzz compared to other dramas such as HP or WOTM. I do think they might be able to recoup their investment when they sell the broadcasting rights. However, with Netflix on the table, I am not sure how this scenario plays out.

 

Isn’t it the main reason for filming a drama while it’s still airing? Some adjustments are usually made to suite the taste of general public. We shall see how this drama evolves. 

I’m not sure what price it was sold at but I do know it was earlier reported that The King already made profit. In fact, if I am not wrong, they made profit before the drama even aired. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 
 

Yes, since they are still filming, they can adjust the drama to viewers’ liking. But of course, it’s crucial to know what Korean viewers want to change it accordingly. Some may want more OTP, others might want more fantasy and still some others might want more crime investigation. It’s hard to pinpoint just one thing to focus on. I hope that in trying to please Korean viewers, the drama still stays true to itself. I think it’s possible because while we have many subplots, they all are apart of one big plot. Maybe what needs to happen is all of the subplots merging into one so there’s one main focus. We are near though because Episode 7 merged two of the subplots, the relationship between JTE and LG + the investigation. And it’s inching closer to merging those two with LR and his grand scheme. Maybe I’m just a patient viewer but I love the pace and can’t decide how it should shift. But I’ll be fine if they decide to shift it towards whichever way, the OTP or fantasy/parallel worlds/LR. 

[krish indu]

Some people consider the success of the show relies on ratings. Did you know money heist first broadcast on spanish television channel and it recieved mixed reception some of the critics harshly critisized it. But when it comes to the Netflix. BOOOM.then u decided what is the condition of a drama to its success. 

[kboramint]

The Prime Minister seeing her doppleganger and getting a newspaper from the ROK has to mean that she'll find out that there's a paraelle world. Will she be able to visit it? Will she be able to meet her doppleganger? Will her doppleganger replace her as Prime Minister? Also, I'm glad we find out that Donald Trump isn't the President of the USA but it makes me wonder who is. There was also a "Fake News" reference when she was talking about Trump.   

[imels]

6 hours ago, Heretorant said:

And not just any businessman, it’s prince Jong In’s son. My eyes are not tricking me right? The old man is prince Jong In’s doppelgänger. 

Wait.wait.wait, what do you mean the bussiness man is prince buyeong son? Wich oldman is prince buyeong doppleganger? I don’t think so. I haven’t seen prince buyeong’s doppleganger yet or maybe I have missed it?

[INeedAFan]

24 minutes ago, Keikokoko said:

According to Studio Dragon, 53 recommendations to buy its stock have appeared; no analyst recommends selling the share. 

I am not going to argue with  something that is based on rumors. However, I do know that Netflix still has negative balance sheet. Paying a hefty amount of money wouldn’t impress their stockholders. Fyi, buy/hold/sell rating is updated in real time. Quoting an old article is not recommended for such information. I am a trader so I know

[Heretorant]

1 hour ago, imels said:

Wait.wait.wait, what do you mean the bussiness man is prince buyeong son? Wich oldman is prince buyeong doppleganger? I don’t think so. I haven’t seen prince buyeong’s doppleganger yet or maybe I have missed it?

Watch it again and let me know what you think. I need more eyes to confirm whether my eyes are tricking me. Scene @ 26:00. The old man is Prince Buyeong’s doppelgänger, cleaned up with hair combed back and no glasses. They have the same exact voice but I can’t decide whether they are the same person because the glow up is too strong . If he is Prince Buyeong’s doppelgänger, then the real prince’s son just got killed. 
 

[SweetButters]

1 hour ago, mamabear said:

The killed woman's boyfriend is the doppelganger of the wardrobe employee of LG right? My theory is since he just became a murder suspect, he just got a reason to go to Kingdom of Corea and be swapped with the wardrobe employee? Or they were swapped already since the murder suspect couldn't be found yet? If that is the case then our king is surrounded of LR's minions??? 

 

 

@mamabear Omg yesss!!! He is the double of the tailor guy in LG's world. That definitely would mean he's from ROK then. Yes I would do think that LG is surrounded by LR's minions now from his horse stable to his wardrobe to part of his security team aka that girl who looks like the roommate in ROK. I mean honestly what's next is probably one of the royal guards is going to get replaced????????

[reynamorisson]

43 minutes ago, FactChecker said:

This Netflix argument is quite interesting, because I am not sure whether Netflix brings as much money as you say they do. Rumor has it that Netflix paid a fixed licensing fee of 30% of total costs (so c. USD 6m).

 

Even if they had some monetisation programme or a pay-per-view-model, I do not think that it can help The King break-even. The King is mainly popular in countries with a very low amount of Netflix subscribers such as the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Philippines has a total of 260,000 Netflix subscribers and they are surely not all of them watching this show. I also think that most of the viewers are using Netflix' free trial, a friend's login or even worse illegal streaming websites. Outside of Korea, I do not think there are more than 500,000-1,000,000 unique people legally streaming the show. Add this amount of legal streamers to the Korean viewership ratings of 7% and the number of viewers is still very low to make a decent return on your money. As said, Netflix paid a fixed licensing fee, so this whole example is not even relevant.

 

With the costs of USD 20 million, The King definitely need the advertising money from SBS. So it saddens me to see that the TV-ratings are so low. It is also a pity that China has a hallyu ban. With LMH's popularity in China, this show would have easily returned USD 20 million+. I don't know how the ratings are in Japan now, but last week's hail mary to get viewers back by appealing to the patriotic feelings of the Korean viewers definitely backfired. The CGI mistakes made Koreans even angrier and I can imagine that the Japanese viewer did not like the scenes either.

 

For now, the only way I think that they can earn some money back is by selling the story rights for remakes, but this will only help the writer and Studio Dragon, but not the actors and the rest of the crew.

No, the payback money argument is actually not true because production cost has been paid in full by both Netflix and SBS based on a project deal, licensing and of course, busiess strategy - before the show was even aired (now business people you know that this means Netflix and SBS already know that on a baseline, on a very minimum, this show will already make money). AND is expecting 30% profit from on advertising with the show ongoing on public channel.

 

You know what show needed to fight hard to pay back production cost? Arthdal Chronicles. Studio Dragon (yes, made by the same studio production company) experienced a 50% profit drop when it first aired and recovered towards the middle and end part of the show. And has season 2!

 

Reference for both statements above:

http://naver.me/57pDgxNe

 

Even more so, my analysis was not based on an assumption alone. We know that this show targets a specific audience like us who want quality and professional content hence would pay to watch. And that is exactly the strategy they choose. To pick shows that diversify portofolio of the company abroad, to win in a market where they know they could (Asia) and to increase on demand viewership because TV viewers are dropping everywhere in the world. Studio Dragon with TKEM being one of its product is expected to make 66.9 billion won profit from on demand video business revenue alone (Netflix, Wave).

 

Reference: 

https://m.stock.naver.com/item/main.nhn#/stocks/253450/news/0004420794/office/014

 

https://mobile.newsis.com/view.html?ar_id=NISX20200508_0001017526#_enliple

 

By the way, the statement where the King is only trending in Netflix of developing countries is not true. It is so not true because here is the list of country where it's been trending for the past 3-4 weeks:

#1 South Korea

#1 Philippines 

#1 Hong Kong

#1 Taiwan

#4 or so Japan

#1 Singapore

#1 Malaysia

Top 10 - Thailand

Top 10 - India

Top 10 - Nigeria

Top 10 - Bangladesh

Top Search - Indonesia (no top 10 system in Indonesia)

 

Now let's not assume these millions of people don't pay right? Even if some millions watch outside Netflix, we can't be assuming these people in these countries are ghosts. These are solid 5-10 million if you're top 10 in these countries.

 

Source: 

https://www.vox.com/2019/12/17/21025154/netflix-global-growth-numbers-sec-streaming-investors

 

There are two things I will leave us all with:

1) This story is not for everyone

2) To whom this story is attractive, that is the 8% in SBS and the top 10s in those countries as well as the subscribers in Wave

3) Don't worry about this show not making money 

[graceyco]

Hello TKEM family! Been trying to back read this thread but it moves at lighting/ "LTE" speed. Everytime I refresh, a new page pops up. I am continuously amazed by your amazing deduction skills and mindblowing theories and I love all of you. That is all.

 

I can't wait for Ep8 tonight!! 

[SweetButters]

Is it me or is LR's right hand man talking to that girl that's a security member at the palace/roommate murder suspect??

 

 

Went back to the start of ep 1 and look who I found ! Totally did not notice she was also in episode 1 !! So many more questions now !!!